Several New Posts up at the Sports Trough

Hey Gang,

I've been getting back on the horse lately. Just not on this site, Join me at the all-new Sports Trough, covering a lot more than college football, though I rarely participate in coverage of other sports, the guys do a great job on NFL, baseball, and whatever else is in the news.

My stuff this week:
Why Texas A&M's SECession is your fault
Week #2 Predictions with Michael
Why you should root for Michigan tomorrow and GO BLUE

And finally, they dragged me into some NFL stuff and made me join their Eliminator Pool. But I took advantage of the assignment to poke some fun at them.

Speaking of eliminations, I still find this goofy show hysterical. Posted because it's Friday night and there's only one game on...

Fisking the ESPN Prestige Rankings

ESPN has put together a "prestige ranking" of all the I-AA college football programs. "ESPN's Prestige Rankings are a numerical method of ranking the best FBS college football programs since the 1936 season." Obviously, this is more of an exercise that is just for fun and not to be taken too seriously. But at times, I like to take frivolous things more seriously. It's the nerdy statistician in me. So let's take a look at what they did and where they may have erred.

Their system:
National Title: 25 points
Major bowl berth: 10
Major bowl win: 10
Conference Championship: 10
AP Top 5 Finish: 10
AP 6-10 Finish: 6
AP 11-25 Finish: 4
Heisman Winner: 8
Bowl Appearance: 3
Bowl Win: 3
10-win Season: 2
Week as AP #1: 2
Win over AP #1: 1
Each All-American: 1
First Round NFL Pick (since 1970): 1
Losing season: -2
TV Ban year: -1
Bowl Ban year: -2
Probation year: -1
Financial-aid Penalty year: -1
Recruiting Penalties year: -1
Each penalty of "show cause action:" -2

What they definitely got right:

• 25 points for a National Title is dead on.
• They handled the conference championship perfectly, and have the right amount of points on it (see their page for details or just trust me).
• 8 points for a Heisman trophy is probably right. Perhaps it could go to 10, but it is a major aspect of the sport, even if you disagree with it.
• The AP finish rankings are pretty much perfect.
• When it comes to one point for each All-American, you could debate that this isn't important and that team success should supersede everything. But everywhere I went, the great players were integral to the thoughts and feelings that everyone expressed to me. At LSU, I heard no less than 40 renditions of Billy Cannon's punt return vs. Ole Miss. Even the youngest Dawgs wanted to discuss Herschel Walker's amazing freshman season. Tommie Frazier could run for governor of Nebraska one day and win in a landslide. When talking about prestige, certainly the great players who made the great plays matter. Do offensive linemen really belong in this category? Maybe not, but to keep the methodology consistent, you have to include them.

What they got wrong:

• Including points for a 10-win season is very problematic. It inherently means less than it used to, thanks to the additional games on the schedule and the fact that those additional games are almost exclusively facing the weakest competition available. I don't think that beating Georgia Southern really improved Georgia's prestige any, but it did get them to 10 wins this season. Furthermore, it shouldn't be included because it is redundant with all the other measures. In statistics, it's akin to what we'd call an overspecified model.
• Including each week ranked as the AP#1 and giving it two points, yet counting a victory over the AP#1 with only one point seems totally backwards to me. Alabama held their #1 ranking the week they beat Mississippi State. Did that really add to the program's prestige in any way? The sport of College Football is inherently about the big moments. And there is no bigger moment in the sport than taking down the #1 team in the country. This should be worth 10 points on its own. Just ask Texas Tech fans. Crabtree's touchdown against #1 Texas trumps any prestigious moment in the history of the program and will until they win the conference (and even then, there will be some who argue that this was bigger).
• Strength of Schedule is basically absent outside of the one point for taking down the AP #1. It's a part of the game (well, it used to be anyway). I realize it would be hard to include this, but the "big games" are important. Perhaps including nationally televised broadcasts would have been good (though quite unfairly skewed as well). Or at least a point for every win over an AP ranked team.
• First round NFL Pick doesn't belong here. Does Ryan Leaf's NFL experience add to the prestige of Washington State? He was chosen 3rd overall. Also, since it only goes back to 1970, it will skew the data to more recent success. ESPN still has trouble understanding that the two sports are not the same. Also it's relatively redundant with the All Americans.

What's missing?

• Part of a program's prestige has always been wrapped up in its all-time great coaches. Can you think of Ohio State without Woody Hayes? Or Alabama without Bear Bryant? It would not have been hard to include points for any coach that was with a school for at least ten years and had at least a .700 winning percentage. For Penn State, give Paterno credit for each decade of tenure.
• Because their system goes season by season, there is nothing for all-time records. For most fans, this certainly plays into the argument for the prestige of their school. It would not have been hard to include a certain number of points for every 100 wins all time. Yes, there would be some redundancy, so perhaps this is not needed.
• Nothing for attendance? Shouldn't Miami should be penalized for their lousy fan base? Fans are a part of the game, too, and certainly affect the prestige of a program.

1936?
They actually address this issue, saying:

The AP poll was introduced that season, making it the first time the longest-standing news organization in the United States began ranking teams and crowning a national champion. Starting in 1937, the NCAA began recognizing "major college programs" (now known as the FBS). To accrue points, a program had to be recognized as one of these major programs by the NCAA.

This is a curious decision to me. When we are talking about "prestige", that doesn't precisely equate with "history", but they're certainly related. To begin in 1936 is to begin after the death of Knute Rockne. In these rankings, we have no Four Horsemen, no Red Grange, none of the "point a minute" Fielding Yost teams, and none of the great Army teams from that era. However, all these seasons matter to many fans today, and are talked about specifically in terms of prestige. Go to South Bend sometime and see if nobody quotes Grantland Rice to you. I promise you it's not possible.

The omission of all early seasons will knock down Michigan and Notre Dame at the least. Perhaps this is by design? As I learned on the road last season, Notre Dame is universally resented around the nation. Michigan is coming off a down year. They have two of the most active internet fan bases and will surely be irate about a lower ranking, causing them to talk about this endeavor that much more. Uhh... kinda like I'm doing right now. It seems like their rationale here doesn't really meet with the overall goal of the project, so I find myself skeptical about the decision. I mean, shouldn't Michigan beating Stanford 45-0 in the very first bowl game add to its prestige a bit? We'll see how things net out as they reveal 1-10 over the next two days. So far, #s 11-119 feel pretty accurate.

Overall, these rankings make a lot more sense in the pre-BCS, pre-horrendous scheduling era. If anything, they point out how much of the tradition has eroded in the last ten years. If I had to bet, my money would be on Nebraska or Oklahoma to take the title. Those "bonus" scholarship players and years of beating up on the other 6 teams in their conference are going to pile up the points.

Worse Than It Looked

I remember I once lauded the Michigan Notre Dame rivalry as one of the nation's greatest because no matter how good the two teams were, the game was always a close one. Games that should have been blowouts were competitive, if not nailbiters. Then 2003 happened. #5 Michigan walloped the #15 Irish squad, 38-0. Ever since, the close games have been full of mistakes and the rest have been embarrassments for one team or the other, deserving of all the yakety-sax derision heaped upon them. Michigan's seven fumbles and two interceptions are all you need to know to determine which category this game belonged to. Though somehow, Notre Dame let the Wolverines hang around for nearly the entire contest.

Back to the game at hand. Friends who have seen other Michigan games this year claim that this was our strongest outing yet, and I believe them because they're honest, thinkin' folks. Plus, they seem to agree with MGoBlog's take. Still, that was pretty excruciating, not to mention disconcerting. What I once held up as one of the true pinnacles of college football is now a dead rivalry because one of the two teams is certifiably dead. And that team won the game. Because if Notre Dame couldn't dominate this Michigan team, especially when gifted six turnovers, the Fighting Irish are officially down for the count. After the game, Charlie Weis said, "We definitely showed up against a good opponent and it’s sweet." I can count at least three incorrect aspects to that sentence and one resides in a gray area. As I said last week, Notre Dame desperately needed to win this game. But to win it like this is almost worst. Had they lost - lost to the worst Michigan team since 1968 - they could have cut bait, thrown Charlie Weis and his bumb knee overboard and went about hiring a real head coach. This win is a reprieve of Weis and a reason not to eat his bloated contract at the end of the season. There is still a chance that such a thing happens, but Weis has now proven his hiring a failure. That's why, even though they won, Notre Dame lost. They won't be playing like champions any day soon, and I honestly feel badly for them. Heck. I feel badly for the game of college football. It never should have come to this.

At least I was finally able to watch some college football here in Buenos Aires. I found a bar here that was loaded with fans from all over - Texas A+M, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State (yikes!), USC, Auburn, UCLA (double yikes!), and a gigantic contingent from Georgia. It would have been a great time if it weren't for those damn fumbles. Heck, it was a great time anyway. I got to hear from fans of the Big 12, Pac Ten, and SEC how awful the Big Ten is. What fun! How peeved are they going to be when either Wisconsin or Penn State runs the table and ends up in Miami? Really peeved, that's how peeved! And I'll be at "El Alamo" with them to hear further grievances. The .500 bowl record versus the SEC is my lone trump card - a weak one at that, but I plan to continue playing it as long as I can (likely termination date - January 1st, 2009). The real test is if I come back next week when Michigan has a bye. We'll see.

Keys to tomorrow's game

From The Onion

(ht: Maize N Brew)

One for the History Books

It was late April, 2006. I remember my upstairs neighbor, a proud Notre Dame graduate, glowingly asking me, "Did you hear we got our quarterback?" In a similar tone, I replied, "Yep. Did you hear we got ours?" My how things have changed.

When I started my trip last year, I chose Notre Dame for three reasons. 1) They had one of only two compelling home games across the nation to start their season. 2) It was close to home, so last-minute arrangements would be easy. 3) I had a feeling they were in for a down year, and I wanted to catch them when things were still cheery. But I don't think I or anyone else believed that the wheels would fall off quite so dramatically. Every week. In the weeks leading up to the debacle versus Georgia Tech, Domers were cheery as anyone. At the tailgates, they were all certain of victory, and to a man, they all had immense faith in Charlie Weis. I can't imagine that South Bend will be quite so sunny this Saturday morning. The cloud now looming is not merely threatening; it is dark enough to block one of the most successful programs in history from view completely.

Michigan, on the other hand, was to accomplish great things last season. We all know what happened starting that very day. Let's not dwell on it, OK? After all the events of last season, the approach for Michigan fans is an new and bewildering one. Nobody was very surprised when we lost to Utah. We're clinging to hopes of making a bowl game to keep the streak alive, and have real fears that we're going to suffer the same fate as the Irish last season. And our Golden Boy tasked with taking the program into the next era skipped town. (The saga of Ryan Mallet isn't the only reason I removed myself from the yearly recruiting chatter, but it certainly played a role.)

Hardly the clash of titans we expect when the two winningest programs in college football face off, the game is being openly derided in the media. Perhaps it should. Certainly, neither of these teams is going to win the national championship this season. However, in the context of college football, this game is immensely important. If Notre Dame loses this game, their situation becomes quite hopeless. Despite his outrageous contract extension, Weis has to be fired. Retaining him essentially proves the accusations of racism levied at the school, regardless of Willingham's failures at U-Dub. After a 3-9 season, if he can't beat this Michigan team, what possible argument can he make to continue as head coach?

Michigan, on the other hand, is staring that 3-9 possibility in the face. Excuses abound. No offensive linemen, no quarterback, and a new regime are all somewhat fair reasons for failure. To lose this game is somewhat expected. But winning this game will give the team the same boost Notre Dame got in 2005. That game is probably the biggest reason that the school and its fans showed such confidence in Weis. It was a sign that brighter days were ahead. That the sign turned out to be connivingly false shouldn't bother Michigan at all if we pull this game out. What a boost it would be for the rest of the season.

I find myself in a weird position this time around. I grew up despising Notre Dame, and attending Michigan only steeled my hatred. I've long said that the world of college football is a better place when the Irish are doing well, even though I had no love for them. But a funny thing happend to me last year. I spent enough time with the Domers that I began to understand them a bit. Even worse, I realized I actually liked them. I know. Gross, right? It was a bit like making out with your sister. It affected me to the point that when Michigan won last year's battle of 0-2 juggernauts 38-0, I really felt sorry for the folks in South Bend.

So what of this week's game? I have my viewing location staked out in Buenos Aires. They promise me the game will be on. Does my soft heart coupled with the fact that Notre Dame needs this game so much more than we do affect my mindset at all? Of course not. I hope we win 39-0! That is wholly impossible, and I will take a win under any circumstances. At this point, I'd still take some solace in being called tallest midget as opposed to the dumbest imbecile. In the long run, it might actually matter a lot.

First SI Tailgate Report Is Up

In addition to the blog and the eventual book, I'm also doing a little freelance work for SI.com's On Campus section. That has helped a little bit in dealing with the more reluctant interviewees, especially when it comes to taking photos of them. There will be one of these per week, and the Notre Dame edition is now posted up on the SI On Campus wesbsite.

So give it a click and let me know what you think. I'm just glad they ended up using the Saddam Hussein tattoo... Direct link to the column can be found here.

Dealing with Distraction

Odometer: 428
Location: Cincinnati, OH
States visited: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio

My departure from Chicago was of course more complicated than it needed to be, but that’s probably not a surprise. As stated previously, there were many tasks to complete and people to contact and stuff to pack. I had made it all the way to Hyde Park by the time I realized that my toiletry bag was not among the luggage I loaded into the car. Just minutes from the Skyway entrance, I made the snap decision to go back home for the bag. That brain fart set me back over an hour. Consequently, there was no visit to the college football hall of fame.With all appropriate gear now in tow, the trip to South Bend was quick and easy. This did not prove true once I got there. I have a Garmin GPS navigational system and it certainly has its strengths. But it has no idea where you’re supposed to park for the Notre Dame pep rally. After doing a long lap around South Bend, I finally figured out where I was supposed to be and was greeted by the marching band playing the Virginia Tech fight song in the parking lot outside of Notre Dame Stadium. With the pep rally due to start in one hour, I scrambled to get in line for my free ticket. The lap around town proved to be a potentially major setback as the ticket queue stretched nearly the complete circumference of Notre Dame Stadium. It was amazing. Either Irish fans are really into getting something for free or they’re ridiculously devoted to the team. The Joyce Convocation Center was packed to the rafters with people prepared to scream wildly in celebration of the season’s commencement. Students arrived from their dorms dressed in customized matching shirts, chanting and cheering as they walked across the campus. In the arena, the noise was deafening as fans welcomed Charlie Weis, Joe Theisman, Chris Zorich, and the 2007 football team. Two guys wore gigantic paper mache masks resembling Weis and Lou Holtz, though they couldn’t see very well and kept bumping into one another while trying to find their seats. As the crowd filed out on the last echoes of The Victory March, all seemed confident that they would indeed crush the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets tomorrow.Tailgating began pretty early for some – I arrived at 8:00 am and many folks were already set up. I strolled around campus for a bit and then joined Jay of Blue Gray Sky for a breakfast burrito and a bloody mary. Now that’s how you start a football Saturday. Most fans donned the new “official” T-shirt - green with the words “Together as One” over the leprechaun logo – or a Notre Dame jersey. There was an astonishing amount of cornhole being played. Apparently this game is gonna make it…I strolled around the grounds, trying to get the hang of this whole “Hi, I’m here to crash your tailgate and write down every thing you say” routine. For the most part, people were very nice and certainly up for talking to me. I even met a few former Notre Dame players who, at this point, blend in with everyone else. When they heard I went to Michigan, nobody got on my case about it. “Well, that’s a good school!” was probably the most frequent response.

However, as the day wore on, people began to inform me that Michigan was struggling to keep pace with Appalachian State. This was certainly distracting news. Then text messages from my Michigan friends came through saying things like, “I am having an effen meltdown with this team! SERENITY NOW!” and “Heisman – what?” I was faced with my first major dilemma of this project (well, aside from the whole quitting my career thing). The Michigan/Appalachian state game was on at a few tailgates. I could plunk myself down and watch – or I could keep working. After much internal struggle, I chose to keep doing interviews and talking with people about Notre Dame.

After entering the stadium, I called my friend Mike to get a status report. I could barely hear him, but I learned that we had taken the lead. He tried to give me play-by-play, but it just came out, “Oooorp! Uyyyyp! DoH!” I couldn’t hang on any longer. It was time for Notre Dame to start playing. I learned the news of Michigan’s ultimate defeat along with 86,000 other people from the Notre Dame Stadium public address announcer. It was the only thing they would be able to cheer about all day, and not the place I would pick to hear such news. I was totally distracted for the entire first quarter (along with the Notre Dame offensive line, apparently). Inner conflict swelled. Had I let my team down by not watching, and was this the punishment? Or did I simply pick the right year to go out on the road instead of remaining entrenched in my normal devotion to Michigan? As time passed, I leaned towards the latter. I am glad I didn’t watch that game.

Things didn’t go much better for the Irish faithful in South Bend. It was an ugly game featuring fumbles galore and not much in the way of downfield passing. I scrambled out of there once there was no remaining chance for an Irish comeback and hit the road. I’m spending Saturday night with my aunt and uncle in Cincinnati. Then it’s off to Clemson for another game. I just hope I’m not cursed. After the disasters in Ann Arbor and South Bend, I have to start wondering.

ND Post Coming

I promise I'll get some posts up here soon. I've been driving and Clemsoning since the Notre Dame game ended. Until then, this will have to tide you over: