Devotion and Doubt

I found myself rooting for Alabama over Auburn this past weekend. But I wasn't sure why. Maybe it's because I was still hoping that Boise State would get a shot at the title, and I figured that was the easiest way they could get there. Or because in Pick 'Em I needed a big upset to have to chance to come back in the standings. Or because when I hear that "S-E-C! S-E-C!" nonsense I feel like a cat being petted in the wrong direction - uncomfortably testy. Auburn was one of the last stops on my road trip, and despite my exhaustion it was probably the best Thanksgiving Friday of my life. The fans were as generous with me as anyone, and a jovial day ended with a hearty celebration at Toomer's Corner. My heart should probably always be with Auburn in the Iron Bowl, but I needed my brain to give it the reminder.

I moved to Argentina two and a half years ago, and have felt more distant from college football each season. Not that I haven't been paying attention, but it's just not the same when you can't take in the whole Saturday. Reading box-scores as they come in just isn't the same. I can curse the fact that internet here is too slow to stream all I want, but it doesn't change the situation. The last two weeks, I took an extended break to celebrate Thanksgiving with the family and got to behave like a real fan again. Oh how I have missed taking in the full slate of games every week. That said, it did not go very well for me and my team.

I've been on the side of giving Rich Rodriguez another year, but it was based on limited information. I haven't been able to actually watch many of the games over the past three seasons. I've had to go on box scores, bloggers' analyses, and angry or relief-filled e-mails from friends. In statistics, we'd say that a model built on limited data like this has a lot of error. Over the past two weeks I gathered more info. I watched not just Michigan's games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, but various other teams playing various other games. During the Ohio State/Iowa game last week, it struck me how they limit their mistakes to the bare minimum. They are not a superb team, especially on offense. But it's not like they're a good enough team to truly dominate. Except for those occasions when Pryor goofs, the team never shoots themselves in the foot.

It strikes me that as Michigan fans, we must watch between our fingers, waiting for the next big mistake. On Saturday, otherwise reliable receivers dropped easy and hard passes all day. It was sunny and dry. There was no reason for these gaffes. The best offensive play of the afternoon, the one Michigan's run all season where Denard Robinson jab-steps and then throws deep over the middle was negated because of the stupidest of penalties. The defense started out playing strong, but eventually the mistakes arrived via missed tackles or by players being out of position.

It is clear that Rodriguez is a talented coach when it comes to schemes and running an aggressive offense. Whatever he has done to coach Denard in the offseason and during this year has worked tremendously well. Last year Denard wasn't remotely a quarterback. This year he broke records. And I'm willing to forgive his proclivity to turn the ball over as that's what first-year starters often do. But the team is clearly not prepared to play. At the end of the year, the kinks should already be worked out and the blooper-reel stuff eliminated. What we saw the last two weeks simply cannot happen. Maybe they had a bad couple of weeks, or perhaps the team is tired. I'm still working with limited data here, though the more I gain, the bleaker the picture becomes.

If Michigan can indeed snag Jim Harbaugh now, it's clearly the choice with a higher probability of long-term success. Rodriguez was not dealt the best hand when he arrived at Michigan. The talent wasn't there, and many people were working against him, hard. From the old-schoolers in the athletic department who wanted Les Miles, to the Detroit Free Press' hatchet men, to the litigious WVU Athletic Department, he had a lot of unfair stuff to deal with. I am sure the team will improve next year if he stays. There are few seniors, and the offensive recruits coming in seem to have a lot of potential. And it would be impossible for the defense to be any worse, even if Greg Robinson is miraculously spared the axe. Maybe the continuation of this nadir is not all Rodriguez's fault, but that doesn't really matter anymore. It's like one of those sad country songs where the singer burdens himself with blame, but gives a fair share to the fates. Either way, the dude's just going to be miserable for a while, and there's not much he can do to lift his spirits.

I am now very concerned about the ceiling of the team with Rodriguez. If they can't catch a pass in the most important game of the year, and can't stop getting dumb penalties, and can't be in position, will they ever be an elite team? Because that's the real reason Ohio State has now won seven times in a row. They get the most out of the players they have. This year, I'd say we got the most out of just a handful: Denard and one or two offensive lineman. That, more than anything makes me think it's time to cut bait. It's pretty clear that Jim Harbaugh gets the most out of his talent.

Again, I'm out of the loop. I can't even decide which teams to root for anymore. Not seeing games hurts all of it. I guess I still need to hear what people like Brian and Dave have to say. They've been preaching patience all year. But after they saw what we all saw these last two weeks, I can't imagine they have a lot left. Suddenly, a bowl game is small consolation.

At the very least I am thankful to have endured those games and seen so many others. Reading about how Boise State saved their season with a last second bomb only to blow it on two botched chipshots pales in comparison to taking it in live. At the very least I have come to a conclusion about something. Next year, I'm finding a way to spend my Saturdays with football, even if I have to move. Either that or I'll have to buy a guitar and pick up a drawl so I can lament my various losses in song.

Down in a hole

Somewhere in South Carolina, a close friend of mine is digging a hole. He's tearing up his own back yard - a small part of it at least - and he's digging. He's doing this for a dramatic gesture. He will bundle his well-worn Michigan jersey in plastic and place it in that hole. He vows not to collect it until Michigan makes a BCS bowl game.

At Mgoblog, Brian has given his last word (for now) in defense of Rich Rodriguez. Everything he writes is on the money in this complicated situation.

I love Lloyd Carr. The man took over our program at a really rough time and went out and won a national championship. He is a local hero in many ways, a Michigan man, and someone whose character should be admired not simply because of his ardent beliefs, but because in many ways he brings out the best in college football. He was not simply a coach, but viewed himself as a teacher. He believed in the game and believed in his players. Plus, he's the man who convinced me that we do indeed need a playoff. That said...

I think when people talk about the end of the Carr era, it's important to keep one major factor in mind: Mike Hart. He was a three-star recruit from the middle of nowhere New York that put the entire team on his back for four straight years. Sure, there was other talent, but after Braylon Edwards left, this wasn't exactly a stacked team. Outside of 2006, the defense was a mess, but Hart kept Michigan in every game he played. Remember in 2005 when all of Michigan fandom said "We have no chance to beat Michigan State!"? Hart came back healthy for the game and saved the day with 218 yards. We can all list a dozen games where he was the difference for Michigan. Appalachian State was supposed to be included, but, well, that thing about the abysmal defense. The Mike Hart teams won in spite of themselves and largely because he gave us a chance in every game where he was healthy. But there's a reason he never beat Ohio State, and it has little to do with him. The cupboard wasn't totally bare, but someone had been removing items when we weren't looking. Hart just made it seem like it was still relatively stocked.

For years, many people said, "We gotta fire Lloyd Carr!" My response was always the same: "OK, who do you want?" There was never an answer for this from the haters. Those who want Rodriguez axed don't have an answer either. Nearly every big-time program who fires their coach to start a new regime goes through this. The conventional wisdom is that Carr tried to put his assistants in place to take over. He gave them more responsibility in 2007. They failed. An easy transition was impossible. If we'd hired Les Miles, Marty Schottenheimer, or George S Patton, we would have had very similar problems.

Not our coach

The overriding obvious idea here is that this really sucks. As Ray Liotta said in Goodfellas, "This is the bad time."What my friend in South Carolina is doing is really important, but there's one aspect that is the most crucial part of the gesture. He's putting that jersey in plastic (please double-bag it, Roberto). He's not laying Michigan to rest. This is not a burial. This is a time capsule for himself. When he retrieves it some November day, he should buy it a bouquet of roses first (or a sack of doritos or whatever bowl-themed present is most apt). Then he should hug it high and tight like Ennis Del Mar.

I've identified my local futbol team here: Independiente. It's the third most popular team in Argentina, and has one of the richest traditions. The two most popular are Boca and River. Between them, they actually claim over 80% of the fans which is stupid, but Argentines generally like to follow the pack. Every team has nicknames they call themselves (in River's case: Los Millionarios) and names that everyone else calls them (River's: Las Gallinas (the female chickens)). Independiente used to be great, but since I first arrived here, they have been sucky to crappy. This season, they are actually playing well - winning games they shouldn't and playing above their talent. It seemed that Michigan was going the same direction, but perhaps that will have to wait until next year (ojalá!) I bring this up because the opposing team's nicknames for the Independiente fans is Los Amargos. This means, "The Bitter People." Translation - always negative, all the time. If that doesn't fit with the stereotype of a Michigan fan, then I'm Cristina Kirchner. I certainly didn't plan it that way, but maybe as Michigan fans, we're destined to suffer.

Not a Michigan fan - yet

I've been playing ultimate frisbee down here. Our team hasn't lost since March and yesterday we won the second championship in the history of the country. I bring this up because we weren't always such a dominant team. In fact, when we lost those two games in March, one team thrashed us 15-7. Since then we've been rolling. Why? We got mad, and we put in the practice. This experience will season these players, hopefully for the better. As much as this hurts us as fans, it's ten times worse for them. They're very young. Nobody can say they're not trying. They've come a long way from Toledo, even as they are sure to lose these last two games. We thought last season was the bottom. Really, we're looking at it right now, at least in terms of our patience and experience as fans. If Michigan pulls out a miracle in the last two weeks, it is a corner turned. And if not, you can't tell me this team isn't going to be more prepared next season.

So bury the jersey well, my friend. I expect it won't be ready to be dug up until November of 2011. By then it will be properly seasoned and in need of a big hug.

UPDATE: Maize N Brew chimes in