Fisking the ESPN Prestige Rankings

ESPN has put together a "prestige ranking" of all the I-AA college football programs. "ESPN's Prestige Rankings are a numerical method of ranking the best FBS college football programs since the 1936 season." Obviously, this is more of an exercise that is just for fun and not to be taken too seriously. But at times, I like to take frivolous things more seriously. It's the nerdy statistician in me. So let's take a look at what they did and where they may have erred.

Their system:
National Title: 25 points
Major bowl berth: 10
Major bowl win: 10
Conference Championship: 10
AP Top 5 Finish: 10
AP 6-10 Finish: 6
AP 11-25 Finish: 4
Heisman Winner: 8
Bowl Appearance: 3
Bowl Win: 3
10-win Season: 2
Week as AP #1: 2
Win over AP #1: 1
Each All-American: 1
First Round NFL Pick (since 1970): 1
Losing season: -2
TV Ban year: -1
Bowl Ban year: -2
Probation year: -1
Financial-aid Penalty year: -1
Recruiting Penalties year: -1
Each penalty of "show cause action:" -2

What they definitely got right:

• 25 points for a National Title is dead on.
• They handled the conference championship perfectly, and have the right amount of points on it (see their page for details or just trust me).
• 8 points for a Heisman trophy is probably right. Perhaps it could go to 10, but it is a major aspect of the sport, even if you disagree with it.
• The AP finish rankings are pretty much perfect.
• When it comes to one point for each All-American, you could debate that this isn't important and that team success should supersede everything. But everywhere I went, the great players were integral to the thoughts and feelings that everyone expressed to me. At LSU, I heard no less than 40 renditions of Billy Cannon's punt return vs. Ole Miss. Even the youngest Dawgs wanted to discuss Herschel Walker's amazing freshman season. Tommie Frazier could run for governor of Nebraska one day and win in a landslide. When talking about prestige, certainly the great players who made the great plays matter. Do offensive linemen really belong in this category? Maybe not, but to keep the methodology consistent, you have to include them.

What they got wrong:

• Including points for a 10-win season is very problematic. It inherently means less than it used to, thanks to the additional games on the schedule and the fact that those additional games are almost exclusively facing the weakest competition available. I don't think that beating Georgia Southern really improved Georgia's prestige any, but it did get them to 10 wins this season. Furthermore, it shouldn't be included because it is redundant with all the other measures. In statistics, it's akin to what we'd call an overspecified model.
• Including each week ranked as the AP#1 and giving it two points, yet counting a victory over the AP#1 with only one point seems totally backwards to me. Alabama held their #1 ranking the week they beat Mississippi State. Did that really add to the program's prestige in any way? The sport of College Football is inherently about the big moments. And there is no bigger moment in the sport than taking down the #1 team in the country. This should be worth 10 points on its own. Just ask Texas Tech fans. Crabtree's touchdown against #1 Texas trumps any prestigious moment in the history of the program and will until they win the conference (and even then, there will be some who argue that this was bigger).
• Strength of Schedule is basically absent outside of the one point for taking down the AP #1. It's a part of the game (well, it used to be anyway). I realize it would be hard to include this, but the "big games" are important. Perhaps including nationally televised broadcasts would have been good (though quite unfairly skewed as well). Or at least a point for every win over an AP ranked team.
• First round NFL Pick doesn't belong here. Does Ryan Leaf's NFL experience add to the prestige of Washington State? He was chosen 3rd overall. Also, since it only goes back to 1970, it will skew the data to more recent success. ESPN still has trouble understanding that the two sports are not the same. Also it's relatively redundant with the All Americans.

What's missing?

• Part of a program's prestige has always been wrapped up in its all-time great coaches. Can you think of Ohio State without Woody Hayes? Or Alabama without Bear Bryant? It would not have been hard to include points for any coach that was with a school for at least ten years and had at least a .700 winning percentage. For Penn State, give Paterno credit for each decade of tenure.
• Because their system goes season by season, there is nothing for all-time records. For most fans, this certainly plays into the argument for the prestige of their school. It would not have been hard to include a certain number of points for every 100 wins all time. Yes, there would be some redundancy, so perhaps this is not needed.
• Nothing for attendance? Shouldn't Miami should be penalized for their lousy fan base? Fans are a part of the game, too, and certainly affect the prestige of a program.

1936?
They actually address this issue, saying:

The AP poll was introduced that season, making it the first time the longest-standing news organization in the United States began ranking teams and crowning a national champion. Starting in 1937, the NCAA began recognizing "major college programs" (now known as the FBS). To accrue points, a program had to be recognized as one of these major programs by the NCAA.

This is a curious decision to me. When we are talking about "prestige", that doesn't precisely equate with "history", but they're certainly related. To begin in 1936 is to begin after the death of Knute Rockne. In these rankings, we have no Four Horsemen, no Red Grange, none of the "point a minute" Fielding Yost teams, and none of the great Army teams from that era. However, all these seasons matter to many fans today, and are talked about specifically in terms of prestige. Go to South Bend sometime and see if nobody quotes Grantland Rice to you. I promise you it's not possible.

The omission of all early seasons will knock down Michigan and Notre Dame at the least. Perhaps this is by design? As I learned on the road last season, Notre Dame is universally resented around the nation. Michigan is coming off a down year. They have two of the most active internet fan bases and will surely be irate about a lower ranking, causing them to talk about this endeavor that much more. Uhh... kinda like I'm doing right now. It seems like their rationale here doesn't really meet with the overall goal of the project, so I find myself skeptical about the decision. I mean, shouldn't Michigan beating Stanford 45-0 in the very first bowl game add to its prestige a bit? We'll see how things net out as they reveal 1-10 over the next two days. So far, #s 11-119 feel pretty accurate.

Overall, these rankings make a lot more sense in the pre-BCS, pre-horrendous scheduling era. If anything, they point out how much of the tradition has eroded in the last ten years. If I had to bet, my money would be on Nebraska or Oklahoma to take the title. Those "bonus" scholarship players and years of beating up on the other 6 teams in their conference are going to pile up the points.

Tailgate Report Card: Florida vs Georgia

I know what you're thinking. They tailgate for Softball? Well, perhaps they do, but in going through all my notes, I realized there were a couple SI On Campus stories I wrote that were never published. Consider this my "things I lost in the fire" era. So we are going way back to the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party for this one. I don't even remember what I wrote, but here it is...

Setting A neutral-site game has a lot to offer in terms of heated pregame passion shown by both sides. But the area surrounding Alltel stadium in Jacksonville is hardly anyone’s version of paradise. The tailgating areas mostly consist of cement parking lots packed with cars and little room for major grilling or tenting. That said, one has to be impressed with the immense scale of the scene. You could walk for ten blocks in any direction and still not leave the tailgating areas. Grade: C+

Knowledge of Fans As the day wore on, it seemed the level of football knowledge decreased. I’m sure it was just buried beneath all the bourbon, beer, and other consumables. A lot of people were local Jacksonville and not as into the college game as one would expect in an on-campus setting. Every Georgia fan I spoke with was convinced they had no chance to win the game. Then again, had any of us heard of Knowshon Moreno before Saturday? Grade: C

Eats Most tailgates served pre-prepared grub or made sandwiches. Grills were rather scarce for an SEC football matchup. Part of that could have been due to the fact that this is neither team’s normal home turf. However, some more committed groups managed to put together beef tenderloin, low country boil, BBQ ribs, hot nachos, and of course heaping piles of barbecue. But how seriously does one have to take grub at a cocktail party? Grade: B-Drinks They don’t call it the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party for nothing. While there was plenty of beer to be had, bourbon was the most popular ingredient of the day. Mixed with ginger ale or coke, big bottles found themselves emptied by the end of the day. One group busted out the champagne as soon as they arrived, but many Georgia folks popped corks after the game ended. You’d be hard-pressed to find a thirsty soul in Jacksonville Saturday. Grade: AYard Games Tight quarters meant little room for throwing and tossing. Still, people managed to get in a little cornhole, beer pong, and washers. Grade: B-

Cheers and Songs It seems these neutral site affairs bring out the best in pregame enthusiasm. Florida fans started with “Orange! Blue!” The Georgia backers then countered with “What’s that coming down the track? A huge machine that’s big and black!” Gators shouted “It’s great, to be, a Florida Gator! It’s great, to be, a Florida Gator!” Dawgs woofed with a tenacity that would make Arsenio Hall blush. As kickoff approached, chats grew louder and more frequent. Walking into the game, many young men and women had already blown out their vocal cords. Grade: A

Eye Candy One could easily argue that this game is the reason the category was invented. Beautiful Georgia girls dressed in red and back sundresses and traveled in groups all day. If that wasn’t your thing, Florida cuties donned jerseys and short shorts. The day’s competition wasn’t limited to the on-field action. Ladies from both fan bases brought their A game. Even the unattractive girls looked good. I didn’t want to leave. Grade: ASuperfans Hardly anyone was painted or wearing outlandish getups. One guy’s outfit featured a plush coat in Gator blue and was topped with a homemade pimp hat. But beyond that, everyone sported team colors. Red slacks were frequent, as were Percy Harvin jerseys. Grade: C

X-factor Many games feature large huddles of RVs assigned to special sections near the stadium. But there’s nothing quite like RV City in Jacksonville. Because neighbors for the week are from opposing camps, they make special effort to wave their team’s flags and decorate their home. The result is a bizarre sort of anytown USA feel, with pride on display. Everyone managed to get along. Grade: B

Best Tailgate The standout effort belongs to Gator Hawg’s Lawg Annual BBQ. Fans of both teams flocked to their spot in RV city throughout the day, and with good reason. Over the course of the weekend, they went through four bushels of oysters, 600 pounds of barbecued pork, and enough ribs and baked beans to choke a tyrannosaurus. But perhaps the best feature of their setup is that they had two porto-lets all to themselves. The only complaint would be that their TVs were a bit dated. Plasmas would have been nice, but the classic screens fit with the vintage RV motif. Grade: B-

Perhaps because of the recent one-sidedness of the rivalry, everyone was pretty cheerful and there to have a good time. Digs on the opposition were frequent, but altercations were few and far between. I was surprised at how many Florida and Georgia fans arrived as part of the same crew. The stadium itself is awfully sterile, as is the environment nearby. I know it’s tradition to have the game in Jacksonville, but I don’t see any major reason not to go to a more typically home-and-home matchup. But it was a great experience and I’ll be recommending to friends and acquaintances to take their own visit to the WLOCP at least once.

Worlds Largest Culture Clash

Odometer: 11,938
Location: Jacksonville, FL
States Visited: Georgia, Florida

After some solid rest, relaxation, and reminiscing in Charleston, I hit the road prepared to tangle with Gators, Dawgs, and whatever epithets they heaped upon one another. On my way south, I had a major lunch craving, but couldn’t stomach the idea of fast food. I’ve had enough cardboard-flavored burgers and chick’n-crispies to last me a good decade. But on the highway, the signs never list the local joints. Upon any freeway exit, you are likely stuck with the value meal or dollar menu after all. So when I was approaching the Florida/Georgia border and spied a sign for Larry’s Giant Subs, I knew it was the place for me. Of all the “road food” I’ve consumed on this trip, nothing hit the spot quite like Larry’s, even if it did turn out to be a chain. Furthermore, they had an enormous display of King Kong busting through the wall. I asked the kid working there if it was OK if I snapped a picture. He cautioned me against using flash photography, but I risked the beast’s escape and got this beauty.

Friday night, I hit the Jacksonville Landing which is best described as a mall with bars right on the river. The night before the Cocktail Party, it is a mass of people from both sides, getting their drink on. Rather than go into detail, I’m just going to give you some quick hits on things I saw.

Many gorgeous women: Kitschy T-shirts:

Zealous fans: A man wearing a tuxedo up top, but only Georgia boxers on the bottom:

Make it Suntori Time

“Funny” Florida guys:

Nice watch, guy

I would be remiss if I did not make mention of the absolutely horrendous music. The DJ played a littany of the worst tunes you could think of. Here is a short list: Tag Team, Robert Palmer, Rednex, Scatman, Sir Mix-A-Lot, some weird oldies mashup, KC and the Sunshine Band (twice), and Kris Kross. It's 2007! My God, man! By 11, the place was completely mobbed. I decided it was time to make my exit, particularly because my neutral colors meant people had no idea what to yell at me. Plus, I had a big day of sampling at the Worlds Largest Cocktail Party starting early the next morning.

The nickname may no longer be officially applied, but I can attest that livers remain active in Jacksonville. Drinks of all varieties were consumed, shared, and sampled throughout the day. Though bourbon appeared to be the most popular pick. Florida and Georgia fans razzed one another with calls of “Jean shorts” rebutted by quotes of recent head-to-head records. Toy alligators and bulldogs were stomped, dragged, and generally abused throughout the day. I was surprised to see many Florida and Georgia fans arriving together. Aside from the groups that came that way, there was little commingling of the two fan bases. Very few of the Bulldog fans I spoke with gave their team even a slim chance to come away with victory. Gator backers were all rather confident that victory would be theirs again.

There’s a somewhat subtle, yet significant difference between NFL stadiums and those on campus, even when the arena is loaded with college football fans. It could be because there’s a “Bud Zone” or maybe that there are seats instead of bleachers. Whatever the case, I greatly prefer a college stadium. I almost felt like we were watching the action on TV. My seat was in the Florida section, though there were two extremely vocal Bulldogs directly behind me. These ladies were awfully lit up. It was clear they’d been partaking of the day’s libations in order to perform at their squawky best once toe met leather. Several rows in front of me, a guy who took himself pretty seriously brought a whistle and led the crowd in cheers. He was way into it and people followed his routine. If you saw the game, you knowshon what happened. Every team should have a blueprint on how to beat the Gators’ young defense now. If you have an even remotely speedy wideout and a QB with any arm strength whatsoever, deep passes for touchdowns are yours for the taking. I’m sure their DBs will mature and they’ll have three years of excellent play back there. As Charlie Weis says, take your opportunity now.
A special thanks to Paul Westerdawg of Georgia Sports Blog who showed great hospitality with food, drink, and friends. I’m off to Atlanta for a few days before trekking to what would normally be considered enemy territory for me. Columbus Ohio. I’ll try not to cause offense to wind up in traction or worse.

Friendly Faces in New Places

Odometer: 1125
Location: Clarkston, GA
States visited: Georgia

First a couple of tidbits left over from the Clemson trip. Rather than occupying houses off campus, most of the fraternities at Clemson all live in a quad – basically dorms, but all the dorms in the quad are faternities. For the last several years (either five or fifteen, depending on who I was talking to), they were not allowed to have “tailgates” before games. Something about too much underage drinking or some such thing. Monday marked the return of the quad’s tailgate. To make sure they had really did it up, a Led Zeppelin cover band named Zoso was hired to play the party. They ripped it up despite the lead singer’s bald spot, and the crowd really got into it. It was an odd scene. It was like ten fraternity parties all fell on top of one another and joined to form an amorphous blob of a frat party. Also, the fraternity guys dress in shirts and ties for the game, while the sorority girls wear sundresses. Often times, the shirts and dresses are orange.
My dad sent me a press release that talked about Clemson trying to step up recycling on gameday. Part of me is glad to hear it, while another part of me says, “well, it’s about damn time!” There actually were a fair amount of blue bins around, but nowhere near what they actually need because there are so many tailgate areas. Anyway, as you can see, the amorphous fraternity blob did its part:
I snapped a (somewhat fuzzy) picture of Bobby Bowden doing absolutely nothing near the end of the first half. This is pretty much how he looked the whole game. At least he’s a good recruiter, right?
On my way to Atlanta, I stopped in Athens, Georgia since the UGA game I’m going to is going to be in Jacksonville. They had a really cool downtown that reminded me a lot of Ann Arbor, but with more bars. I hung out there all afternoon and envisioned how much fun it would be to spend a weekend there. The campus wasn’t as nice (at least the parts I saw), but with such a cool downtown, who cares? One major difference was that one of the Bulldog paraphernalia stores didn’t merely have the typical t-shirts, stickers and Jordan jammers. They carried sun dresses in UGA colors. Not gonna see this in Big Ten country. Then again, I defy any of these women to wear a sun dress to Camp Randall stadium in November…
Another reason I was so psyched for this trip is that I’m going to get to see a lot of old friends who have left Chicago or are friends from even longer ago. Tuesday evening, I arrived at Erik & Chrissy’s Dander Palace in Clarkston, GA. It’s just barely OTP (outside the perimeter), making technically, but also figuratively suburbs. Erik and Chrissy are not "suburb people," but they have two very large dogs and three cats. They managed to land a really cool house with a gigantic yard which is great for the dogs. Why am I telling you this? I just wanted to show off my new Atlanta lingo. Because I was only there for a couple days and everyone had a lot of work to do, we didn’t really go ITP. But they were excellent hosts and we had a hilarious time retelling old stories and looking up subversive terms on Wikipedia. Maybe next time.

Now it’s off to Baton Rouge for what purports to be the biggest game on the schedule this week. I can not wait to get down there. Geuax Tigers! And Hokies, too!