Showing posts with label texas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label texas. Show all posts

Thursday, January 22

Fisking the ESPN Prestige Rankings

ESPN has put together a "prestige ranking" of all the I-AA college football programs. "ESPN's Prestige Rankings are a numerical method of ranking the best FBS college football programs since the 1936 season." Obviously, this is more of an exercise that is just for fun and not to be taken too seriously. But at times, I like to take frivolous things more seriously. It's the nerdy statistician in me. So let's take a look at what they did and where they may have erred.

Their system:
National Title: 25 points
Major bowl berth: 10
Major bowl win: 10
Conference Championship: 10
AP Top 5 Finish: 10
AP 6-10 Finish: 6
AP 11-25 Finish: 4
Heisman Winner: 8
Bowl Appearance: 3
Bowl Win: 3
10-win Season: 2
Week as AP #1: 2
Win over AP #1: 1
Each All-American: 1
First Round NFL Pick (since 1970): 1
Losing season: -2
TV Ban year: -1
Bowl Ban year: -2
Probation year: -1
Financial-aid Penalty year: -1
Recruiting Penalties year: -1
Each penalty of "show cause action:" -2

What they definitely got right:
  • 25 points for a National Title is dead on.
  • They handled the conference championship perfectly, and have the right amount of points on it (see their page for details or just trust me).
  • 8 points for a Heisman trophy is probably right. Perhaps it could go to 10, but it is a major aspect of the sport, even if you disagree with it.
  • The AP finish rankings are pretty much perfect.
  • When it comes to one point for each All-American, you could debate that this isn't important and that team success should supersede everything. But everywhere I went, the great players were integral to the thoughts and feelings that everyone expressed to me. At LSU, I heard no less than 40 renditions of Billy Cannon's punt return vs. Ole Miss. Even the youngest Dawgs wanted to discuss Herschel Walker's amazing freshman season. Tommie Frazier could run for governor of Nebraska one day and win in a landslide. When talking about prestige, certainly the great players who made the great plays matter. Do offensive linemen really belong in this category? Maybe not, but to keep the methodology consistent, you have to include them.
What they got wrong:
  • Including points for a 10-win season is very problematic. It inherently means less than it used to, thanks to the additional games on the schedule and the fact that those additional games are almost exclusively facing the weakest competition available. I don't think that beating Georgia Southern really improved Georgia's prestige any, but it did get them to 10 wins this season. Furthermore, it shouldn't be included because it is redundant with all the other measures. In statistics, it's akin to what we'd call an overspecified model.
  • Including each week ranked as the AP#1 and giving it two points, yet counting a victory over the AP#1 with only one point seems totally backwards to me. Alabama held their #1 ranking the week they beat Mississippi State. Did that really add to the program's prestige in any way? The sport of College Football is inherently about the big moments. And there is no bigger moment in the sport than taking down the #1 team in the country. This should be worth 10 points on its own. Just ask Texas Tech fans. Crabtree's touchdown against #1 Texas trumps any prestigious moment in the history of the program and will until they win the conference (and even then, there will be some who argue that this was bigger).
  • Strength of Schedule is basically absent outside of the one point for taking down the AP #1. It's a part of the game (well, it used to be anyway). I realize it would be hard to include this, but the "big games" are important. Perhaps including nationally televised broadcasts would have been good (though quite unfairly skewed as well). Or at least a point for every win over an AP ranked team.
  • First round NFL Pick doesn't belong here. Does Ryan Leaf's NFL experience add to the prestige of Washington State? He was chosen 3rd overall. Also, since it only goes back to 1970, it will skew the data to more recent success. ESPN still has trouble understanding that the two sports are not the same. Also it's relatively redundant with the All Americans.
What's missing?
  • Part of a program's prestige has always been wrapped up in its all-time great coaches. Can you think of Ohio State without Woody Hayes? Or Alabama without Bear Bryant? It would not have been hard to include points for any coach that was with a school for at least ten years and had at least a .700 winning percentage. For Penn State, give Paterno credit for each decade of tenure.
  • Because their system goes season by season, there is nothing for all-time records. For most fans, this certainly plays into the argument for the prestige of their school. It would not have been hard to include a certain number of points for every 100 wins all time. Yes, there would be some redundancy, so perhaps this is not needed.
  • Nothing for attendance? Shouldn't Miami should be penalized for their lousy fan base? Fans are a part of the game, too, and certainly affect the prestige of a program.
1936?
They actually address this issue, saying:
The AP poll was introduced that season, making it the first time the longest-standing news organization in the United States began ranking teams and crowning a national champion. Starting in 1937, the NCAA began recognizing "major college programs" (now known as the FBS). To accrue points, a program had to be recognized as one of these major programs by the NCAA.
This is a curious decision to me. When we are talking about "prestige", that doesn't precisely equate with "history", but they're certainly related. To begin in 1936 is to begin after the death of Knute Rockne. In these rankings, we have no Four Horsemen, no Red Grange, none of the "point a minute" Fielding Yost teams, and none of the great Army teams from that era. However, all these seasons matter to many fans today, and are talked about specifically in terms of prestige. Go to South Bend sometime and see if nobody quotes Grantland Rice to you. I promise you it's not possible.

The omission of all early seasons will knock down Michigan and Notre Dame at the least. Perhaps this is by design? As I learned on the road last season, Notre Dame is universally resented around the nation. Michigan is coming off a down year. They have two of the most active internet fan bases and will surely be irate about a lower ranking, causing them to talk about this endeavor that much more. Uhh... kinda like I'm doing right now. It seems like their rationale here doesn't really meet with the overall goal of the project, so I find myself skeptical about the decision. I mean, shouldn't Michigan beating Stanford 45-0 in the very first bowl game add to its prestige a bit? We'll see how things net out as they reveal 1-10 over the next two days. So far, #s 11-119 feel pretty accurate.

Overall, these rankings make a lot more sense in the pre-BCS, pre-horrendous scheduling era. If anything, they point out how much of the tradition has eroded in the last ten years. If I had to bet, my money would be on Nebraska or Oklahoma to take the title. Those "bonus" scholarship players and years of beating up on the other 6 teams in their conference are going to pile up the points.

Friday, October 12

Red River Shootout Tailgate Report Is Up

SI On Campus tailgate report card from Dallas is now posted. Check it here.

As always, thanks for reading and feel free to leave comments.

Sunday, October 7

Red River Whatchamacallit

Odometer: 8644
Location: Garland, TX


You read the internets. Surely by now, you've heard about the unfortunate events in Oklahoma City this past September. With that grisly story still fresh in my mind (and how I long for the day it becomes unfresh - it unfortunatley reminded me of this far, far worse story), I was eager to see this heated rivalry up close. Thankfully, no altercations remotely close to that particular incident went down, and the day proved fun and enlightening.

Perhaps it’s a sign of the times that AT+T managed to get a game already steeped in tradition and character to not only name it after their company, but also to change its moniker from the Red River Shootout to the Red River Rivalry. ‘Cause we can’t have shootouts in this day and age. Not in Texas. Won’t someone think of the children?!? I’ve had the John Wayne / Montgomery Clift movie Red River with me on the road this entire time with every intention of viewing it before October 6th. Alas, there just has not been any time for movie watching. Maybe when I get home in December, I’ll finally give it a look. I presume it has nothing to do with football, but it would have been fitting to watch it this week. I arrived at the State Fair of Texas early and roamed the parking lots. The first people I encountered was a group of political activists who were there to do the same thing I was (go around and talk to people), albeit with an entirely different purpose. This is certainly not a political site, but they were nice enough and for some reason begged me to mention their man here. I guess they’re looking for any media attention they can get, even if it’s some lonely blogger. So…. Ron Paul! For what it’s worth, I’ll give the same treatment to any candidate except Rudy Guliani or Carol Mosely Bruan. I know she’s not running again, but I figured just in case she changes her mind, I’ll be safe.
Anyway, it was very disorienting for me to see people streaming into the fair immediately after parking their cars. After six games, I’m so accustomed to the tailgate scene, I felt like everyone was lost and needed my help in directing them. Not everyone eschewed the parking lots, though. As I got out of my car, a man named Mark was setting up his grill and someone shouted to him, “What’s for breakfast?” With a grin and a chuckle, he replied, “Steak!” Later, he and his wife fed me a grilled sausage wrapped in a tortilla which I highly recommend as it was easy to manage and delicious. The weather was intermittently terrible, toeing the line between aggressive mist and heavy sprinkles. With a brief shrug, everyone kept referring to it as “Texas weather.” I don’t think I like Texas weather. It’s too hot to wear your raingear and too wet to write in your notebook. Once in the fair, I barely caught the tail end of a Red River Shootout tradition – the ceremonial banging on the opposing team’s busses. I only managed to see the Oklahoma band harassed. From what I hear, the players and coaches received a lot of yelling, banging and fingerhorns pointed skyward or earthward, depending on the affiliation of the fan. Beer was flowing as was cotton candy and all sorts of other fair treats. Families with little kids mixed with drunken college students and alumni. Every few minutes calls of “Boomer! Sooner!” or “Texas! Fight!” would erupt. Except for the time when ESPN Radio tossed around free t-shirts, everyone was well behaved. Many Oklahoma fans wore crimson tees that addressed Texas, either with “Texas” written upside down, or “Book ‘em Horns” emblazoned across the chest. I only saw two Texas shirts ripping OU. One said “Oklahomo.” The other had a picture of this kid.

Did Big Tex wet himself? Based on his shrug, it looks like he's not sure, either.


The state fair is really not my cup of tea. I definitely had a fun time there, but I can’t imagine going back to any state fair – unless of course there’s an excellent football game to be played. It was ridiculously crowded and nearly every attraction, ticket booth, and food stand had a long line. Plus, this turkey tried his darndest not to show his face to me, no matter how long I waited with my camera.
The one type of booth that had no lines whatsoever was the copious amount of corporate tents and exhibits. Everything from Jacuzzis to makeup to kitchen supplies were on display. In some of the buildings, they had demonstrations with areas set up for an audience. This photo is from “the Cooking Show.” Don’t these people seem enthralled? And of course no one wants to sit up front. Just like school. I got a face-value ticket in the Texas student section. Quite a few of the kids there had consumed way too much alcohol. They had enough trouble standing, let alone following the game. But they all stayed to the end of the game and cheered on their team. The only truly egregious problem was when they started screaming before the snap when their team was on offense. Perhaps with half the fans in the stadium rooting for the Sooners, it didn’t matter. The setup for this game is so unique. It was crucial that I get into the stadium because you get to see the clear demarcation of fan bases. It doesn’t show up perfectly in the above photo, but live it’s really quite impressive. One end of the stadium is constantly cheering while the other is silent or groaning. I think it’s a much better division than the usual format for neutral site games. That way, each team has a home and away end. I suppose if it was really windy, one team would have an advantage, but that would have to be some remarkable gale. A woman was selling powerade and had two varieties, fruit punch and orange. I asked her which one was selling better, and she said, “Oh, easily the orange.” She was of course working the Texas end of the stadium. The Cotton Bowl has a rep as being an old, rundown stadium, but I didn't find it to be so. I know they recently did some improvements, so maybe that had an impact. The only issue arose when it was time to leave, and severe, inclement Texas weather was rolling in, everyone had to leave the stadium immediately lest they be struck by lightning. The throng getting out of the stands and down the ramps was a crowded mess, but all were well-behaved.

Of course, the game was excellent. Texas nearly managed the upset, but Oklahoma made a few more of the big plays and caused the big turnovers. Because they were supposed to win, maybe everyone came out not totally disappointed, but not enthused, either. I wolfed down a Fletcher’s Corny Dog. With my remaining tickets, I had to try the deep fried cookie dough. It tasted just like you’d expect it to taste. Magnificent.

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