Fisking the ESPN Prestige Rankings

ESPN has put together a "prestige ranking" of all the I-AA college football programs. "ESPN's Prestige Rankings are a numerical method of ranking the best FBS college football programs since the 1936 season." Obviously, this is more of an exercise that is just for fun and not to be taken too seriously. But at times, I like to take frivolous things more seriously. It's the nerdy statistician in me. So let's take a look at what they did and where they may have erred.

Their system:
National Title: 25 points
Major bowl berth: 10
Major bowl win: 10
Conference Championship: 10
AP Top 5 Finish: 10
AP 6-10 Finish: 6
AP 11-25 Finish: 4
Heisman Winner: 8
Bowl Appearance: 3
Bowl Win: 3
10-win Season: 2
Week as AP #1: 2
Win over AP #1: 1
Each All-American: 1
First Round NFL Pick (since 1970): 1
Losing season: -2
TV Ban year: -1
Bowl Ban year: -2
Probation year: -1
Financial-aid Penalty year: -1
Recruiting Penalties year: -1
Each penalty of "show cause action:" -2

What they definitely got right:

• 25 points for a National Title is dead on.
• They handled the conference championship perfectly, and have the right amount of points on it (see their page for details or just trust me).
• 8 points for a Heisman trophy is probably right. Perhaps it could go to 10, but it is a major aspect of the sport, even if you disagree with it.
• The AP finish rankings are pretty much perfect.
• When it comes to one point for each All-American, you could debate that this isn't important and that team success should supersede everything. But everywhere I went, the great players were integral to the thoughts and feelings that everyone expressed to me. At LSU, I heard no less than 40 renditions of Billy Cannon's punt return vs. Ole Miss. Even the youngest Dawgs wanted to discuss Herschel Walker's amazing freshman season. Tommie Frazier could run for governor of Nebraska one day and win in a landslide. When talking about prestige, certainly the great players who made the great plays matter. Do offensive linemen really belong in this category? Maybe not, but to keep the methodology consistent, you have to include them.

What they got wrong:

• Including points for a 10-win season is very problematic. It inherently means less than it used to, thanks to the additional games on the schedule and the fact that those additional games are almost exclusively facing the weakest competition available. I don't think that beating Georgia Southern really improved Georgia's prestige any, but it did get them to 10 wins this season. Furthermore, it shouldn't be included because it is redundant with all the other measures. In statistics, it's akin to what we'd call an overspecified model.
• Including each week ranked as the AP#1 and giving it two points, yet counting a victory over the AP#1 with only one point seems totally backwards to me. Alabama held their #1 ranking the week they beat Mississippi State. Did that really add to the program's prestige in any way? The sport of College Football is inherently about the big moments. And there is no bigger moment in the sport than taking down the #1 team in the country. This should be worth 10 points on its own. Just ask Texas Tech fans. Crabtree's touchdown against #1 Texas trumps any prestigious moment in the history of the program and will until they win the conference (and even then, there will be some who argue that this was bigger).
• Strength of Schedule is basically absent outside of the one point for taking down the AP #1. It's a part of the game (well, it used to be anyway). I realize it would be hard to include this, but the "big games" are important. Perhaps including nationally televised broadcasts would have been good (though quite unfairly skewed as well). Or at least a point for every win over an AP ranked team.
• First round NFL Pick doesn't belong here. Does Ryan Leaf's NFL experience add to the prestige of Washington State? He was chosen 3rd overall. Also, since it only goes back to 1970, it will skew the data to more recent success. ESPN still has trouble understanding that the two sports are not the same. Also it's relatively redundant with the All Americans.

What's missing?

• Part of a program's prestige has always been wrapped up in its all-time great coaches. Can you think of Ohio State without Woody Hayes? Or Alabama without Bear Bryant? It would not have been hard to include points for any coach that was with a school for at least ten years and had at least a .700 winning percentage. For Penn State, give Paterno credit for each decade of tenure.
• Because their system goes season by season, there is nothing for all-time records. For most fans, this certainly plays into the argument for the prestige of their school. It would not have been hard to include a certain number of points for every 100 wins all time. Yes, there would be some redundancy, so perhaps this is not needed.
• Nothing for attendance? Shouldn't Miami should be penalized for their lousy fan base? Fans are a part of the game, too, and certainly affect the prestige of a program.

1936?
They actually address this issue, saying:

The AP poll was introduced that season, making it the first time the longest-standing news organization in the United States began ranking teams and crowning a national champion. Starting in 1937, the NCAA began recognizing "major college programs" (now known as the FBS). To accrue points, a program had to be recognized as one of these major programs by the NCAA.

This is a curious decision to me. When we are talking about "prestige", that doesn't precisely equate with "history", but they're certainly related. To begin in 1936 is to begin after the death of Knute Rockne. In these rankings, we have no Four Horsemen, no Red Grange, none of the "point a minute" Fielding Yost teams, and none of the great Army teams from that era. However, all these seasons matter to many fans today, and are talked about specifically in terms of prestige. Go to South Bend sometime and see if nobody quotes Grantland Rice to you. I promise you it's not possible.

The omission of all early seasons will knock down Michigan and Notre Dame at the least. Perhaps this is by design? As I learned on the road last season, Notre Dame is universally resented around the nation. Michigan is coming off a down year. They have two of the most active internet fan bases and will surely be irate about a lower ranking, causing them to talk about this endeavor that much more. Uhh... kinda like I'm doing right now. It seems like their rationale here doesn't really meet with the overall goal of the project, so I find myself skeptical about the decision. I mean, shouldn't Michigan beating Stanford 45-0 in the very first bowl game add to its prestige a bit? We'll see how things net out as they reveal 1-10 over the next two days. So far, #s 11-119 feel pretty accurate.

Overall, these rankings make a lot more sense in the pre-BCS, pre-horrendous scheduling era. If anything, they point out how much of the tradition has eroded in the last ten years. If I had to bet, my money would be on Nebraska or Oklahoma to take the title. Those "bonus" scholarship players and years of beating up on the other 6 teams in their conference are going to pile up the points.

More SI On Campus Tailgate Reports

Two new tailgate reports are up. Clemson came out on Monday, and LSU was posted Thursday. Thanks to everyone for reading - here and there! Look for a Nebraska report next week... No idea on the day yet. Whenever I finish it...

Baby Dontcha Wanna Go

Odometer: 2632
Location: Chicago, IL
States Visited: Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missoui, Illinois
Mississippi Crossed: Thrice

After a fruitful weekend in Baton Rouge, I was found myself without a definitive plan for Sunday morning. For the first time in this endeavor, I didn’t have a specific place I was supposed to be. Having never been to New Orleans and also having been told of the wonders of the Jazz sandwich at Verdi Mart, I decided I would spend Sunday night in The Big Easy and then slowly make my way north to Nebraksa. But then I started thinking about my finances and realized that I could make it home in one straight shot if I left right away, saving me at least $300 in the process. So that’s what I did.

Highway 55 goes pretty much from Baton Rouge all the way up to Chicago. It’s about 14 hours if you don’t stop anywhere to eat or see the sights. Not that I passed too many tourist attractions along the way. Tempted by the lure of Memphis, I opted to keep on truckin’ and get home as quickly as possible. Towns with names like Ebenezer, Gluckstadt, Braggadocio, Cape Girardeau, and Coffeeville also piqued my curiosity, but they would all have to wait for some return trip. I’m holding up surprisingly well on these long drives, largely due to all the technological doodads I have with me. My I-pod has been on shuffle, and I’m currently at song 334 out of 4418 (“Budo” by Miles Davis in case you’re curious). SIRIUS satellite radio has its flaws, but four straight hours of Howard Stern can scoot you across a state with minimal boredom. A digital voice recorder allows me to take notes while avoiding a choice between pulling over and causing a sure accident. And cruise control is probably the third greatest invention in history (after air conditioning and soap – seriously, imagine how reeky everyone was before soap).

I’m a big map guy. I’ve always been good with maps and was handed navigational responsibility on family trips at a very early age. For my birthday, my brother gave me a Garmin GPS Navigator thingy which has reduced the stress of driving by myself. The thingy was badly in need of a nickname and while talking with a recent Clemson grad, we stumbled across one by accident. “Grandma” (so named because the girl misunderstood my mumbling) pretty much tells me what to do every step of the way. That has made things a bit weird for me, a map guy, in that I never really know where I am. I only know where I’m going. It has been a challenge for me to take it on faith that Grandma knows the way, but with a few minor exceptions, she has been very on point. She often yells at me when I defy her, be it a pit stop or to take a route I think might be better. “Turn right!” You can feel the scorn when I don’t follow her directions. Any deviation from her declared path is always met with a disdainful, “Recalculating!” But Grandma has been an extremely useful companion getting me where I need to go while breaking long drives up into chunks between turns.

A few other items from LSU:

College Gameday (built by the Home Depot!) was in Baton Rouge. It looks like a much bigger deal on TV than it does in person. They have flawless technique in using all the best camera angles to make things look packed even if they aren’t. It was viciously hot because there was not a bit of shade on the field where their set was plunked down. There were only a few hundred people crammed around the stage, but on TV, it looked much greater. I think Gameday is going to be in Lincoln this Saturday (those guys are following me around – I had my schedule set up way before the season started!). For the most part, people are glad to have them in town because it obviously means it’s one of the top games of the week (provided the game airs on ABC or ESPN). But as far as the show itself goes, I don’t think there’s much of an appeal for the fans.

In addition to Tyrus Thomas, Shaq was in town for the game. Here’s a picture of his bus: It’s one of the most ostentatious things I’ve ever seen. Emblazoned with a painting of Shaq lording over famous movie gangsters like Vito Corleone, Tony Montana, and Jimmy Conway, there’s no question who owns the vehicle. Plus, it has the Superman logo Shaq has attempted to adopt as his own. Here's guessing that Shaunie won't be seeking this bus in the divorce settlement. At least the license plate was done in tribute: “WILT C”

All throughout the day, LSU fans told me one of their favorite things about being an LSU fan was Tiger Band. People began lining the road that leads into the stadium hours in advance to witness the band’s entrance. It was like the Gay Pride parade in Chicago. OK, no, it wasn’t like that. But I was impressed by what a showing there was. The band comes right by Mike the tiger’s enclosure and enters via the student gate to wild cheers and applause from the crowd. Obviously they were just getting warmed up for all the screaming set to take place inside the stadium. Perhaps this was a bigger event because it was the first home game of the season, but I was impressed nonetheless.
Off to Lincoln next!

Laissez Les Bon Temps Roulez

Odometer: 1712
Location: Port Allen, LA
States Visited: Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana

Note that this posting was really supposed to be split into two, but it’s been an extremely busy time here at Road Games HQ, so it’s all going to come down in one.

The first person I spoke with on Saturday morning closed our conversation by telling me, “You’ll see a lot of characters here.” He didn’t know how right he was.

I did not have much of a plan on Friday and spent most of the day working and conducting phone interviews. Right as I was set to try to hit the town and see what’s what, the skies opened up and a long torrential downpour battered the area. I decided it was not the appropriate time for me to drive around trying to find a place where I could buy a pair of waterproof pants. The rain died down just a little and I headed across the Mississippi River to see what I could see on the campus. I was really just wandering around in my car, trying to get a feel for the place. I probably should have stopped and tried to find a bar somewhere, but again, the weather was awful and people generally didn’t seem like they were out and about. I did finally manage to get some waterproof pants, but along the way, I spotted a liquor store whose sign read, “BOURBON TASTES LIKE FOOTBALL.” I knew I would have plenty of opportunity to party on Saturday.

The temperature climbed well into the 90s on Saturday which, coupled with the rain from the day before, made for a pretty sticky day. By 10am, it was already nearly unbearable. This meant that when I stopped to chat with people, I made sure I spent as much time in the shade as possible. Luckily, the on-campus tailgates were all shrouded in trees so that was an easy proposition.
When people found out I was from Chicago, they immediately tried to see what I could handle. First it was boudin (pronounced “Boo-dahn”) which is kind of like dirty rice made into sausage form. Salty and spicy, it was right up my alley. At my next stop, I was handed and oyster shooter. The raw oyster, vodka, and tobasco sauce was kind of hard to take down in one shot, but I managed. It wasn’t exactly a way to savor the oyster, but I’m sure my stomach liked it. Local flavor was on display all day long. I sampled Jambalaya, Pastalaya and other Cajun delicacies. I also had some excellent kebabs. Whenever someone in Hokie gear would pass by a tailgate, the LSU fans would growl and shout, “Tigah bait!” It honestly scared the hell out of me the first time I heard it. I was munching on some boudin and talking to a guy in his 50s, and he suddenly yelled, “Come on! RRrraarrrrrrrr! Tigah bait!” Until he said the tigah bait line, I had no clue what was going on and thought he had momentarily gone insane. The best thing about this process is that as soon as they are done berating the opposing fans, they invite them in for drinks and food. At halftime of the game, I asked one of the Hokie fans what they thought about it and they said, “Yeah, it gets a little old after a while, but it’s a lot better than what they could be yelling.” Seriously, they could have been Rutgers fans.

The folks at LSU have a lot of axes to grind. With no natural rival, they create the hate where they can get it. Lots of people wore anti-$aban t-shirts, but the bigger ire was directed at USC. One gentleman asked me where I was going next, and upon learning that it is Nebraska vs USC, he shouted, “I hope they beat the fuck out of USC. Fuck USC!” That was par for the course whenever USC was mentioned. The Tiger fans are still not over the 2003 split title, and root against USC every week. Though they would love nothing more than to meet them in the National Championship game this year. And based on how solid LSU looked Saturday night, I’d say they very well may end up there. The LSU tailgate scene is quite the party. The main goal of all tailgaters is to live it up. Between the food and the drinks and the music, it’s a full on party. College students mingle with alumni and swap stories and beverages. I’ll put it this way. This was not the only eight-person funnel I encountered. The LSU athletic department treated me extremely well. They not only gave me a press pass, but I was also able to interview one of their Athletic Directors, a game marshal, and a man who’s been working one of the gates there for over fifty years. After spending my day beating the heat, I made my way up to my assigned place in the press box. I am not going to say that I didn’t belong there. I write a column of SI On Campus and I am working on a book about college football. That makes me a journalist, even if I’m not a properly trained one. But when I arrived at my spot, I found I was placed between Steve Megargee of rivals.com and Matt Hayes of the Sporting News. To Matt’s left: Stewart Mandel (SI.com), Dennis Dodd (cbssportsline.com) and Pat Forde (ESPN.com). Let’s just say that all of those gentlemen have more distinguished writing careers than I do. At least at this point. So it was a bit surreal being up there, and seeing how things operate. The most notable thing is that all of these guys are college football fans just like the rest of us – save for the fact that they have to be objective. But they were all keeping eyes on the other games going on and chatting with each other about big plays (one let out an “Oh Colt” when McCoy threw a pick-six to TCU) and surprising upsets (“South Florida took the lead!”). Until the LSU game kicked off, the scene wasn’t that different from any of us hanging with our friends and watching football. Once the game began, I didn’t spend much time in the booth as I’m trying to meet fans, and while the journalists certainly are fans – they’re not exactly the kind of fans I’m seeking. Fifteen minutes before kickoff, I bolted for to join the crowd. In the elevator, I rode down one floor with New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin. Then, upon arriving at the field level, the first thing I saw was Chicago Bull Tyrus Thomas.

But I was there to get the fan experience. I can safely say this was the loudest stadium I’ve ever been in. With all due respect to Clemson, which was extremely loud in its own right, Tiger Stadium is otherworldly in terms of volume. Fans screamed their heads off the entire game, even after it turned into a blowout. In the second half, I moved to a seat where a kid behind me who must have been eight years old was hollering his brains out. I was totally impressed. Again, I go back to the fact that Michigan crowds should be much, much louder. There is no excuse for our lack of volume. I wanted to hit the bar scene a bit, but after another extremely long day in the heat, I figured it was best to get back to the hotel room and get some notes taken. I want to give a shout-out to my friends at Tiger Pimp Nation who provided me food, drink, and tales.

Finally, I have to say that while I’m glad that the rain held off for the most part on Saturday, it appears that I missed out on all kinds of soaked shenanigans that go down when the weather is worse. LSU tailgates, jackass style:

And this:


Reverse angle:


Nebraska/USC is up next. See you there!